A dangerous political storm is gathering in Zimbabwe, and at the center of it stands President Emmerson Mnangagwa, surrounded by allegations that threaten to bring his presidency to its knees. The man lighting the match is none other than Wicknell Chivayo—an ex-convict tycoon, political fixer, and the face of a $100 million corruption scandal that now reaches into the heart of Mnangagwa’s government.

At the core of the scandal is a shady tender awarded by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (Zec) ahead of the 2023 general elections. Chivayo, despite his criminal past, secured a massive deal to supply electoral materials—bypassing due process and allegedly siphoning millions with the help of powerful allies. Now, audio recordings have surfaced in which Chivayo boasts that he has Mnangagwa “under his tight grip.” This claim alone, made by a convicted fraudster, casts a dark cloud over the entire presidency.

But this is more than just empty talk. The Zec deal is tied to a string of Mnangagwa’s close allies and relatives. Zec chairperson Priscilla Chigumba, Chief Secretary to the Cabinet Martin Rushwaya, and Central Intelligence Organisation boss Isaac Moyo—all reported to be linked to the tender scandal—are not just officials. They are pillars of Mnangagwa’s power structure. If they fall, he may fall with them.

The president now faces an impossible choice. If he allows the law to take its course and Chivayo is arrested, there’s a real risk that the businessman will blow the lid off the entire operation—exposing details that could link corruption directly to Mnangagwa’s office. But if Mnangagwa protects him, he confirms what Chivayo has claimed all along: that the president is under his thumb. In doing so, he would shatter any remaining illusion of accountability or independence in the justice system.

This scandal couldn’t come at a worse time. Zimbabwe’s economy is bleeding, inflation is soaring, and faith in the local currency—the ZiG—is plummeting. Public frustration is at a boiling point. The government has jailed students, assaulted peaceful protesters, and locked up dozens of opposition supporters ahead of the upcoming SADC summit. The image Mnangagwa is trying to build—of a stable, reformist Zimbabwe—is crumbling.

The Wicknell Chivayo affair is a litmus test for Mnangagwa’s leadership. He rose to power in 2017 on the promise of a “Second Republic,” one that would break from the corrupt Mugabe era. Instead, Zimbabwe has watched the same old script play out—only this time, with flashier cars, louder cronies, and more reckless impunity.

Chivayo himself is playing a dangerous game. If protected, he becomes untouchable—a symbol of everything wrong with Zimbabwe’s kleptocracy. If prosecuted, he may retaliate with devastating evidence that could collapse entire factions of the ruling party. He knows too much and has too little to lose.

And now, the people are watching. Zimbabweans know what’s at stake. This isn’t just about one scandal. It’s about whether there is any justice left in a system built to protect the powerful. It’s about whether the law still means something when the accused are close to the president. It’s about whether Mnangagwa will put the country before his cronies—or go down with them.

In this moment, Mnangagwa is cornered. His silence, his decisions, and his inaction will all speak volumes. Will he distance himself from Chivayo and risk internal war within Zanu PF? Or will he shield the tycoon and confirm the worst fears of a captured, corrupt regime?

One thing is certain: the outcome of this scandal could define not just the legacy of Emmerson Mnangagwa—but the future of Zimbabwe’s democracy. And with every leaked audio, every dodged question, and every delayed investigation, that future hangs more precariously in the balance.